Moving without a map: Clarity isn’t a prerequisite for progress

In 1915, Ernest Shackleton’s ship, Endurance, was trapped in Antarctic pack ice. For months the crew waited, hoping the ice would break and release them. Instead, the ice crushed the ship, and they were stranded on drifting ice floes.

There were options but no clear path forward.  It finally came down to a choice to stay and wait for unlikely rescue, or move without knowing exactly what it would take to survive.

Shackleton chose to move. He didn’t wait for clarity or a complete plan. It required improvisation, judgment, and continuous adaptation. They customised the lifeboat for the journey and set sail not knowing if they would succeed. He led five of his crew over stormy seas and mountain ranges to a whaling station on South Georgia. It then took multiple attempts to eventually rescue the rest of the crew left behind.

Clarity is not required for action

Most of us won’t face survival conditions in Antarctic seas. But in complex projects, we face similar dynamics and an urgent need to move despite uncertainty.

Project management can provide a comforting illusion: define the problem, break it into parts, solve each bit, and execute the plan. That works well when the answer is known but not when you're building something novel, political, or messy.

In complexity, the path only reveals itself through action.

That’s why so many “best practice” responses (more analysis, more planning, more meetings) can make things worse. They can get in the way of taking real action.

Probe, Sense, Respond

Instead of “plan, then execute,” complex projects require a different rhythm.

David Snowden's Cynefin framework highlights the need to probe-sense-respond when dealing with complexity.

This approach aligns with design thinking and adaptive leadership. You step forward with intent, gather feedback from the environment, and adjust. It means replacing certainty with curiosity, and linearity with learning loops.

Shackleton’s expedition can teach us about moving without clarity:

• He didn’t freeze. He accepted ambiguity and chose a direction.

• He adapted constantly. He didn’t expect to know everything upfront.

• He chose the right people for the task at hand

• He kept the team together. Cohesion matters more than control.

This is exactly what complex project leadership demands. Not a rigid plan, but a direction to guide decisions, rapid feedback loops, acknowledging what you don't know, and building a strong, trusting team.

Clarity is emergent, not predefined

It’s tempting to think the best leaders have the clearest plans. In reality, the best leaders move before the plan is clear and bring others with them.

Something to think about:

What decision or step are you putting off because the path isn’t perfectly clear? What might you learn by moving anyway?

Perhaps try a small "probe" this week and see what you learn.